Decryption. “Demographic rearmament”: how the decline in the birth rate became a political issue

In his latest book, published in June (*), Édouard Philippe accuses the nation of burying its head in the sand and ignoring the demographic issue. "The persistence with which France disregards the data available to it on the matter is edifying," he writes. "We have entered the era of declining birth rates," like our European neighbors, he says. For him, living in an era where there are more deaths than births is "good news for undertakers, but it's hardly anyone else's business."

The former Prime Minister is not the only one to be alarmed. Emmanuel Macron was the first head of state to raise the alarm on the subject. He did so in January 2024 during a major press conference broadcast in prime time on several television channels. "Our France will also be stronger by boosting its birth rate," he told nearly 10 million viewers, using the notion of "demographic rearmament." The measures envisaged ( extended maternity leave , plan to combat infertility ) have not yet seen the light of day.

Will this be the case before 2027? Catherine Vautrin , the Minister of Health, Solidarity and Family, has just consulted the Italian authorities to discuss the birth rate and demography and what was decided by the head of the Italian government, Giorgia Meloni . The issue is indeed a concern across the European continent and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban even makes it an annual event, the demography summit, where he holds up the birth rate as a bulwark against immigration.

The left does not exempt itself from all discourse on the birth rate, but it does have a different approach. During his third presidential campaign in 2022, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise) placed great emphasis on the aging population and the care of the elderly. One of the flagship measures of the rebellious program was the establishment of a public dependency service.

Generally speaking, the left does not have a pro-natalist policy, in the sense that it considers parenthood to be a personal choice, not a state one. It advocates social solutions (more daycare centers, social assistance, etc.). Demographics, whether addressed through old age or the number of births, could be one of the themes of the 2027 presidential election, with two angles: economic and/or identity-based.

(*) The price of our lies , JC Lattes editions.